Best FPL Transfers This Week — Gameweek 6

GW5 Transfers: Buy Groß, and Stop Selling Bruno

The sharpest thing my numbers say this week: a £5.6m midfielder is projected to outscore Cole Palmer over the next six gameweeks. That's Pascal Groß, and over 300,000 managers have already worked it out.

Buy

Groß is my top target at any price band. Brighton's run — ARS (H), SUN (A), CRY (H) — is one of the kindest in the league, he's nailed, and my numbers have him good for roughly 7-8 points a week across the next six. Only about 2 in 10 own him, so there's still real ground to gain. His teammate De Cuyper (£4.8m, DEF) rides the same fixtures with strong clean-sheet potential — 225,000 managers are on that move too, and I back it.

Chelsea's run of BRE (A), BOU (H), EVE (A) makes Rogers (£7.7m) the pick from that attack — nailed, projected around 7 a week, and nearly 400,000 buyers agree. Palmer at £9.7m is a fine alternative if you want the bigger single-week upside, but my numbers rank Rogers ahead at £2m less. Take Rogers.

Hold — this is where I disagree with the crowd

Over 150,000 managers are selling Bruno Fernandes and 126,000 are ditching Mbeumo. I don't get it. United face FUL (A), TOT (H), LEE (A) — a favourable run — and both are nailed with solid returns projected. Nothing in the next six weeks justifies the exodus. Keep both.

Szoboszlai is trickier: 272,000 are selling because of Liverpool's brutal run (BOU away, City at home, Brentford away), and I understand the instinct. But my numbers still back him through those fixtures at £7.0m. Hold if you can.

Sell

Gakpo is different — same tough Liverpool fixtures, but he's not nailed and I have him among the weakest projected returns of any owned midfielder. The crowd is already ahead of me here. Get out.

Tzolis (£6.4m) faces BHA (A), LEE (H), NFO (A) and projects poorly despite the minutes — sell. Diop (£4.0m) has Everton away and City away coming; a £4.0m defender with no clean-sheet outlook is dead money. Move him on.

The call: Gakpo out, Groß in. And if you're one of the thousands queuing to sell Bruno or Mbeumo — cancel the transfer.

Let's do this in order. What has he actually done? I have no record of him. No minutes, no starts, no prior body of work I can hang a projection on. That's not hedging — it's the single most important thing to know about him. A brand-new name with no track record is a guess, and guesses at £4.5m are how you end up with a bench slot that never plays.

Where does he fit, and does he play? On my numbers, nine players sit ahead of him in Newcastle's pecking order. Nine. He is nowhere near first choice, and the club's midfield is already crowded with options I rate far more highly — Barnes at £6.1m is my clear pick of the bunch, good for a solid haul most weeks over this run, with L.Miley (£5.5m) next in line. Even Willock and the £4.5m Miley — same price as Mills — project meaningfully more.

Does he take set pieces? No. Osula has penalties, Hall has free kicks and corners. So there's no cheap route to points there either.

The frustrating part is that the fixtures are genuinely lovely: COV (A), AVL (H), CRY (A), EVE (H), FUL (A), ARS (H) — a very kind run with only Arsenal at the end looking tough. That's exactly why Newcastle assets are worth your attention right now. It's just that the attention should go to Barnes, who's the one clearing my numbers by a distance, not a new arrival buried down the depth chart.

Could Mills force his way in and become a bargain? Possibly — new signings sometimes do. But you'd be buying hope with zero evidence, when the same £4.5m or a touch more gets you players who actually start.

The call: leave Mills alone. If you want a piece of Newcastle's fixture run — and you should — Barnes is my pick. Put Mills on the watchlist and don't touch him until he's actually playing minutes.

The Mid-Price Gold Rush: Groß Is the Buy of the Opening Run

Sixty-four projected points over six gameweeks. From a £5.8m midfielder. That's what our model spits out for Pascal Groß, and it's the loudest number on the whole shortlist — nearly double what most mid-price options are giving you.

The Brighton run is the engine here: Sunderland away, Palace at home, then — yes — Liverpool and City away, but wrapped up with Brentford at home and Hull away. Our model still clears that middle chunk comfortably because Groß is the man on everything for Brighton, and only about 3 in 10 managers own him. He's usually good for a steady return most weeks, and when Brighton click he's got double-digit days in him. At that price, in this form, he's practically a cheat code.

Want to double up? De Cuyper at £4.9m rides the same fixtures and projects the best clean-sheet-plus-upside package of any defender on our list. Also around 3 in 10 owned. A Brighton double for £10.7m combined is the smartest structural move you can make right now.

Rogers is the pricier alternative at £7.7m, and Chelsea's opening slate is tasty — Bournemouth and Spurs at Stamford Bridge, Everton away. He's projected a solid haul most weeks, but 4 in 10 managers already have him, so he wins you less ground. Fine pick, smaller prize.

Honesty corner on the City pair: Gvardiol (£5.7m) gets Ipswich, Brighton and Fulham at home, but starts at Anfield, and City defenders always carry rotation sweat. Cherki at £7.8m is the fun punt — huge on his day — but our model clearly prefers him behind the names above, and I'm not paying £7.8m for a maybe when Groß costs two million less and projects far more. Calafiori is already in half of all squads; he's a hold if you've got him, not a chase if you don't.

The caveat on Brighton: Liverpool and City away in the middle of that run could produce a blank or two, and you'll need to hold your nerve through them.

But that's the game we play. The call: buy Groß this week — before the price rises start — and pair him with De Cuyper if you've got the second transfer. That's the double that wins mini-leagues by October.