Groß Vs Barnes: The Better FPL Pick

Groß vs Barnes: this one isn't close

My numbers project Groß for roughly double Barnes' points over the next six gameweeks — around 64 to Barnes' 32 — and the Brighton man is 30p cheaper. When a £5.8m midfielder out-projects a £6.1m one by that margin, the decision has mostly made itself. But let's be fair to both.

The case for Groß. At £5.8m he's one of the best-value midfielders in the game right now, and my projections have him averaging better than ten points a gameweek across this stretch — the sort of return you'd normally pay £8m-plus for. About 2-3 in 10 managers already own him, so he's popular but not yet fully template — get in before he is. The run helps: Sunderland away, Palace at home, Brentford at home and a trip to Hull are all winnable games where Brighton should create plenty. The caveat is real, though — Liverpool and Manchester City away sit in the middle of that run, and even a kind stretch of fixtures has two genuinely tough afternoons in it. Don't expect hauls at Anfield or the Etihad; expect him to bank his points either side of them.

The case for Barnes. He's got a genuinely gentle run too — Coventry away, Villa and Everton at home, Palace and Fulham before Arsenal arrive. And hardly anyone owns him, well under 1 in 10, so any big week from him moves you up the ranks fast. But here's the problem: my model has him at barely five points a gameweek over the same window, and that's *with* the kind fixtures priced in. That gap isn't about the schedule — it's about how reliably each player converts games into returns. Barnes can go big on his day, but the weekly output just isn't there to justify £6.1m when a cheaper player is projected for twice as much.

The verdict. This is the easy kind of decision: the cheaper player, with the higher projection, in a team funnelling its attacking output through him. If you want a Newcastle attacker, wait for a clearer picture there rather than forcing Barnes in.

Buy Groß at £5.8m. Leave Barnes alone.