FPL Price Changes — Tonight's Risers and Fallers
The read — 0 players rose and 5 fell in the most recent FPL price change. Tonight's candidates are below, ordered by how far their net transfers have travelled towards the threshold that triggers a move.
When prices change: between 23:30 and 02:00 UK — measured from 29 nights of our own polling, not assumed. Each move is bounded below by the last clean snapshot before it and above by the sweep that caught it, so the window is as tight as our polling can honestly make it.
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Last night's confirmed price changes
0 rises and 5 falls, recorded by our own poller as they happened.
Tonight and tomorrow — the calls
Next change window in —. Progress is FPL’s own meter; the projection and the per-hour rate are ours.
Risers
Fallers
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FPL Price Changes: Last Night's Risers And Fallers
The fallers list is longer. João Pedro (CHE) dropped from £7.8m to £7.7m. Roughly 7 in 10 managers hold him. That is the number that matters here: a player owned by most of the game lost value while the template sat on him. Fernandes (MUN) fell from £12.0m to £11.9m — about 4 in 10 own him. O'Reilly (MCI) went £6.4m to £6.3m at about 1 in 10 owned.
The rest of the fallers sit at low ownership. Truffert (BOU) is £5.4m now. Aina (NFO) and McAteer (IPS) both dropped to £4.4m. Gusto (CHE) is £4.9m. Simms (COV) is £4.9m. Bergvall (TOT) is £5.3m. Lerma (CRY) is £4.8m. Fewer than 1 in 30 managers own any of them. These are drops driven by managers moving out, not in.
What it means. If you hold Hall or Schade, you gained £0.1m. If you were planning to buy either, the price is £0.1m higher this morning. That is the fact. We do not predict the next move.
If you hold João Pedro or Fernandes, you lost £0.1m on paper. Selling now locks that in. A price drop is not a reason to sell a player 7 in 10 managers own — points are. Nothing in these moves changes who scores at the weekend.
If you hold Aina, Gusto or the other fallers at the bottom of the list, ask why. Managers are leaving. The price says so.
The call: Hall and Schade were worth buying at the old price. They remain worth buying at the new one — £0.1m does not change the case. Buy them if they were on your list. Hold João Pedro and Fernandes; do not sell on a price drop. And if a £4.4m defender is losing value and losing owners, move him on when your next transfer allows.
Closest to a rise
Closest to a fall
How FPL price changes work
How do FPL price changes work?
A player's price moves when enough managers transfer him in or out. Rises need net transfers in to pass a threshold; falls need net transfers out to pass a threshold set as a share of how many managers own him. Prices move once a day, overnight, and each move is £0.1.
What time do FPL prices change?
Overnight, in the early hours UK time — historically between about 01:30 and 02:30. Fantasy Premier League does not publish the exact moment and it is not guaranteed to be identical every night, which is why we show the window rather than a countdown until we have measured this season's changes ourselves.
Do wildcard transfers affect price changes?
No. Transfers made on a Wildcard or a Free Hit do not count towards a rise or a fall. This is the single biggest reason price predictions go wrong: nobody outside the game can see how many of a player's transfers were made on a chip, so every predictor is estimating it.
How many transfers does a player need to rise?
There is no published number, and it is not fixed. The threshold scales with how many managers own the player, and the rise threshold falls as the season goes on to account for abandoned teams. Anyone quoting you an exact figure has estimated it, including us.
Does selling a player at a lower price lose me money?
You sell for your purchase price plus half of any rise since, rounded down. So a player who has risen £0.3 since you bought him sells for £0.1 more than you paid, not £0.3. Falls are taken in full — if he drops below what you paid, you lose the difference.
How the predictions work — and where they break
The Tonight and Tomorrow calls above are not a secret model. Fantasy Premier League publishes each player’s own progress meter; we read it, measure how fast it is moving from our own polling, and project it to the nightly change window. When the projection clears the line before the window, that is a Tonight.
Where it breaks, it breaks honestly: wildcard and free-hit transfers are invisible to everyone outside the game, a change resets the meter to zero, and double gameweeks behave differently. The nightly record above — hits, misses and false alarms — is measured from our own polling, and every accuracy figure we publish is on one page, misses included.