FPL Gameweek 5: The Players To Watch — 16 Sep
The call — Three in every four managers already own João Pedro — and for once, the crowd has it right. Chelsea's £7.8m forward tops our list for the opening stretch, and the fixture list reads like a gift: BRE (A), BOU (H), EVE (A), TOT (H), MUN (H), SUN (A). Our model has him good for around 38 points over those six…
But here's the bit that gets me out of bed. Rogers, £7.7m, same Chelsea fixtures, projected for even more — around 42 points over six — and only about 4 in 10 managers have him. Same kind run, cheaper by a whisker, and more upside per pound. If you can only afford one Chelsea attacker, our model says Rogers is the one, and the mini-league swing of owning him while the template chases João Pedro is exactly the sort of edge that wins Augusts.
The real steal, though, is in Brighton colours. Groß at £5.7m is projected for around 46 points over the next six — the biggest number on this entire list — and barely 2 in 10 own him. Yes, Arsenal at the Amex first up is spicy, but after that it's Sunderland, Palace and Brentford dotted through the run. At that price he's practically free money. His teammate De Cuyper (£4.8m) rides the same fixtures for clean-sheet points — around 38 projected over six from a defender under five million, owned by roughly 2 in 10. The caveat: those away trips to Anfield and the Etihad mid-run will hurt the shutout odds, so bank the early weeks.
Two warnings before you spend. Calafiori at £5.8m is owned by half the game but our model only sees around 23 points over six — Arsenal's fixtures are fine, but he's the low-return pick occupying money better spent elsewhere. And Szoboszlai faces a brutal run — Bournemouth away, then City, Brentford away, Brighton, Arsenal — and projects barely 25 points. Both are holds at best if you own them; neither is a buy.
The call: Rogers over João Pedro if it's one or the other, Groß in your midfield regardless, and De Cuyper as your bargain defender. Skip Calafiori, don't touch Szoboszlai until the fixtures turn.