FPL Differentials: The Low-Owned Picks To Target — 23 Sep
The call — Diego Gomez. £5.0m. Owned by roughly 1 in 25 managers. That's the whole pitch, really. A £5.0m midfielder our model projects for around 32 points over the next six gameweeks — the best number on this week's under-the-radar list — and almost nobody has him.
Brighton's run is the reason. Sunderland away, Palace at home, then Liverpool away as the one hard shift in the opening stretch. Gomez won't score every week — a quiet one gets you a single point, a normal week is around 3 — but he carries roughly a one-in-6 shot at a proper haul any given gameweek, which for the price is the best value on the board. He's proven at this level. This isn't a punt on a name.
The obvious alternative is Barnes at £6.1m. Newcastle's fixtures are just as kind — Coventry away, Villa at home, Palace away — and he projects for about 31 or 32 points himself. Fine player. But he costs £1.1m more, slightly more managers already have him, and his big-week odds are a touch worse. Our model prefers Gomez and so do I.
Two others worth a line. Ayari, also Brighton, £5.4m, owned by basically nobody — 1 in 250. Projects near 30 points off the same fixtures. If Brighton's attack fires, both he and Gomez eat. But you don't need two Brighton midfielders, and Gomez is cheaper with better haul odds. Watchlist. Tavernier at £6.1m has the numbers but not the fixtures — Chelsea away and United away in his next three. Pass.
The defenders — Muharemović at Leeds, Vuskovic at Brighton, both £5.0m — are unproven at this level, and Muharemović opens at Arsenal away. I don't back unproven £5.0m defenders into Arsenal. Not on the record, anyway.
For the ledger: I've done well backing cheap Brighton midfielders early in a kind run. I'll take that bet again.
The call: buy Gomez at £5.0m before Sunderland away. Ayari stays on the watchlist — if Gomez's minutes wobble, he's the pivot. Everything else here is noise.