Liverpool FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Here's the twist: the defence is a different business. Fifth-meanest in the league by our reckoning, and the fixture run — Brentford away, Brighton and Palace mixed in among the big boys — actually looks kind for clean sheets. So the value at Anfield sits at the wrong end from where everyone's shopping.

The catch, and it's a proper one: nobody in this squad is nailed. Not one player has started more than four of the recent matches. Isak at £9.1m is priced for the ceiling of a man who plays 90 minutes every week, and he isn't that man right now. Wirtz and Gakpo are trading starts between them. Paying £7m+ for an attacker in a mid-table attack facing City, Arsenal and United, who might be subbed on 60 or benched outright — that's not a purchase, it's a donation.

If you must have a Liverpool attacker, our model says Szoboszlai and only Szoboszlai — he's on penalties, free kicks and corners, which is the closest thing to a floor an unnailed midfielder can offer, and about 3 in 10 managers already agree. But the real buys are behind him. Virgil at £6.5m is our top-projected Liverpool asset over the six, owned by fewer than 2 in 10, and clean-sheet potential is exactly what this run pays out. Alisson at £5.5m does the same job cheaper, with barely anyone on him. Jacquet at £5.0m is the enabler option — he's been starting, which at that price is the whole job description.

What changes the call? A settled front line. Until Slot picks the same eleven twice, the attack stays on the shelf.

The call: buy Virgil, or Alisson if the budget's tight. Leave Isak and the shiny midfielders alone until someone's actually nailed.